A tale of two foldables

Samsung’s original Galaxy Flip was the phone that taught me to love foldables. Prior to the launch of the clamshell, devices were big and bulky like the Galaxy Fold. Rather than embracing portability, the goal was jamming as much screen real estate as possible into a pocketable design. The result, in the case of the Fold, was massive, even when closed.

The Flip’s success appeared to catch Samsung by surprise. In spite of the advertising support it pumped into the Fold, the clamshell Flip captured 70% of the company’s foldable sales in 2021 — a year after it originally launched. Portability, coupled with a substantially lower price point, won the day, helping catapult Samsung foldable shipments to 10 million that year.

Samsung is still foldables’ 500-pound gorilla, but the company successes have made the category significantly less lonely in recent years. Increased competition has improved the market, not only bringing device diversity, but also causing the kingpin to rethink a few of its own orthodoxies along the way.

Of recent vintage is the decision to widen the Fold’s narrow front-facing screen a touch. It’s not a big difference (neither the Z Fold 6 nor Z Flip 6 offered a lot in the way of difference), but it is, perhaps, a response to feedback around what’s always been an awkward aspect ratio.

With a device like the Fold, sheer novelty is enough to keep consumers interested for a couple of years. But attention spans are short in consumer electronics. The early adopter shine wears off after a few generations of refinements. That’s doubly the case when competition like Google’s Pixel Fold and the OnePlus Open bring new ideas to the table.

One of the most compelling competitors, however, has been from a more unexpected corner of the mobile world. I admit that I wrote off Motorola’s foldable Razr when it was announced a few months after Samsung’s first Fold went on sale. It was a novelty in its own right: an exclusive to slap a beloved, but bygone, brand on a new device. It felt like the cynical product of the Hollywood reboot era.

The 2020 Razr’s reception wasn’t helped along by the fact that, much like the first Fold, it arrived half-baked. The specs in no way warranted the $1,200 price tag, and the folding mechanism itself left a lot to be desired. For a while there, it felt as though the whole of the foldable category would be a blip on the radar.

Thus far, foldables haven’t moved the needle much in terms of slowing smartphone sales, but the form factor has staying power. According to Counterpoint Research, the global foldables market grew 49% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. Huawei, an early entrant into the category whose growth was significantly hampered thanks to issues with the U.S. and other foreign governments, had a banner quarter as it overtook Samsung for the first time, ever.

While Huawei remains barred from sales in the U.S., it saw a sizable 257% year-on-year growth for the quarter. The shipments were primarily in Huawei’s native China, driven by its long-awaited switch from LTE to 5G with the form factor. Fellow Chinese company Motorola saw huge growth globally, jumping a jaw-dropping 1,473%. Samsung dropped 42% for the quarter but maintained the No. 2 spot globally, with 23% of the total market.

Both the Fold/Flip 6 and the Motorola Razr+ are too new to have had a meaningful impact on quarterly shipments, but I anticipate both seeing notable growth on the backs of well-reviewed devices.

Samsung’s biggest challenge at present is finding ways to keep the category exciting. Gaining market share is no longer simply a matter of education. The company needs to convince non-foldable owners that it’s time to make the leap and nudge existing customers into a refresh — a tall order when the Fold and Flip now start at $1,900 and $1,100, respectively.

The Flip 6 still bests the Razr+ on imaging, something Samsung has long excelled in. But Motorola learned from its early mistakes and has delivered a great folding experience. The design is excellent, and the nearly edge-to-edge 3.6-inch front-facing display looks great. Motorola’s real secret weapon, however, is price.

While $1,000 doesn’t sound great on the face of it, the handset is perpetually on discount. It launched early this week with a $100 discount. Its 2023 predecessor, meanwhile, can be purchased on Amazon for $600 right now.

For its part, Samsung has been rumored to be working on a more affordable take on the Fold available later this year, though the company may have waffled on that. It’s a shame, since Samsung is no longer the only game in town and the next real innovation in foldables will be affordability.